Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Dr.Asok Samanta on illegal regime changes

Sun, Feb 17, 2013 at 10:36 PM
US imperialism involved directly and indirectly
To
The President,
IDBD

(People round the world must rise up to build powerful organized well-coordinated anti-imperialist movement to stop the murderous run of world imperialism led by US imperialism)

Dear Sir,
As you know, we are passing through a time when in the absence of mighty socialist camp led by the USSR, the imperialists-capitalists headed by US imperialists, unable to come out of the insoluble crisis they are ridden with, are on a rampage, pursuing their hegemonistic aspirations, overlordism and brigandage with impunity. Alongside military invasion and illegal occupation of others’ territories, they are now conducting their loot and plunder through neo-colonial route of exporting finance capital and ruling either by installing a puppet government or by forcing the governments of the weaker nations to be pliant with and subjugated to their dictates . They are also causing economic blockade or resorting to escalated violence to circumscribe the weaker nations. For more than six decades now, US imperialism in particular has been directly and indirectly involved in all types of illegal regime changes employing assassinations, bombings, sabotage, terrorism, electoral fraud and such other black means. Whenever the US imperialists can no longer use and abuse a peripheral country, they first attempt to employ open (or white) measures (diplomatic, political, economic, military, etc.) to force a necessary change in the national political leadership of the target state. However, when they fail to attain this objective using “white” or overt actions then, they do not hesitate to initiate, conduct and pursue “black reconnaissance” actions against its perceived and identified enemy targets, or threats to its global strategic interests. Black reconnaissance actions are primarily hidden in the dark and kept from the public, secret and clandestine in nature. They are almost always illegal and violate accepted international principles and norms. Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Honduras, Haiti, have all borne the brunt with variance in degree. Somalia has been victim of the US imperialism-designed “nation building process” and ‘‘kind of humanitarian mission”. The NATO air raid in Kosovo, undertaken without the authorization of the Security Council and largely by using US forces to save the victims of so called ‘ethnic cleansing’ by President Slobodan Milosevic was soon  proved  to  be  a  step  towards fragmenting the Balkan states and deepening  imperialist  strangulation. 
For last three decades, the US imperialists along with their allies like Zionist Israel and British imperialismhave targeted West Asia obviously with a view to having total control of the rich oil fields. USA and its imperialist allies invaded and occupied Iraq on a completely trumped-up charge of possession of weapons of mass destruction. After the occupation of Iraq, USA has tried to keep its stranglehold on the country by installing a puppet regime on the one hand and by instigating ethnic strifes and violent conflicts between religious communities on the other. On the dark pages of human history which record the worst instances of naked aggression of big powers over smaller nations, Afghanistan has been a recent hapless inclusion. The war-monger US imperialists, the chieftain of the world capitalist- imperialist forces, have pounced upon this poor country with such venom and cruelty and have brought about such murderous devastation of human life and property, that have shocked and worried the peace –loving people of the entire world, not to speak of their inflicting unfathomable sufferings upon the Afghan people themselves.Having established control over Iraq and Afghanistan, USA is now turning its attention to other countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Central to US strategy in Middle East is unqualified support to Zionist Israel and to set it up as a bulwark against the surging tide of nationalism and anti-imperialism in the Arab countries; side by side, the US is lending support to the autocratic, tyrannical and despotic rulers in the Arab countries who perpetrate the most ruthless repression on the people, but protect the US interests.For a long time, US imperialists have been using Israel in subduing the most legitimate and just demand of homeland of the Palestine people. In Libya and Syria they are fomenting troubles through agent provocateurs. They are setting up their agents to destabilize the governments through violent armed actions under the cloak of ‘fighting for democracy’.  In the name of providing humanitarian aid to the people under attack from Muammar Gaddafi’s government in Libya, and giving logistic assistance to the forces fighting Gaddafi they, under NATO banner, US imperialists launched a full-scale air-war on Libya and savagely assassinated Gaddafi with the help of so called National Transitional Council (NTC), an organization propped up and backed by the agents of reaction with the blessings of US imperialism and its associates. Alongside a direct armed assault and creating ‘fifth columnists’ inside Libya, the US imperialists also pressed into action the International Criminal Court (ICC) which is increasingly being used as a tool by the Pentagon and Western imperialist powers in their bid to establish direct control over the  huge natural resources of Africa and West Asia.After having demolished Libya, the US imperialists and their allies have now chosen Syria. The present turmoil of Syria was perpetrated and monitored by none other than the US imperialists, towing their allies behind them. It is revealed in the media that just like Iraq and Libya, $6 million was handed out to Syrian groups aligned with US imperialism by the Bush administration after 2006 with a view to ensuring fall of the incumbent Syrian government. Lebanon is also on the radar of the US imperialists. Just the other day, Zionist Israel bombed the territories of Syria. So is Iran who along with socialist North Korea and Cuba has been included by the US rulers in their “axis of evils”. It is reported in The New York Times that US is carrying out secret military and air strikes in Yemen. Sudan, the oil-rich mineral-rich East African country is now a prime target of the US imperialists. 
This is how the imperialist web now extends over the entire globe. How could the imperialist powers particularly the US imperialists be so unbridled in their pursuit of international gangsterism and hegemonism? The answer lies in the qualitative change in the international correlation of forces following sad dismantling of mighty socialist camp due to revisionist conspiracy aided and abetted by capitalist-imperialist powers. So long the socialist camp existed, it, notwithstanding certain limitations and shortcomings, worked as a bulwark of anti-imperialism and peace. Had the bipolar world existed, the US imperialists and their allies would not have the nerve to undertake such dastardly activities with alacrity, unleash a reign of terror round the globe and openly threat the countries or political personalities not seeing eye to eye with them of dire consequences. Cowardly acts like summarily executing political opponents openly and boastfully would not have been that easy and go unchallenged. One would have observed that since collapse of the USSR and Eastern European socialist states in 1989-1991, US imperialists have launched five wars of invasion — in Iraq twice, in Yugoslavia in 1999, in Afghanistan in 2001, and now in Libya.It is pertinent to mention that Indian capitalism has also assumed imperialist character, given rise to a financial oligarchy by merger of industrial capital with banking capital and is exporting finance capital abroad to exploit cheap labour and raw material. Thus, the Indian monopolists have become junior partners of world imperialism and in order to fulfil their aspiration to become a formidable power in central and south Asia, they are increasing tilting towards the US camp, entering into nuclear treaty with them, undertaking joint military exercises and backing US design to target Iran, North Korea and other regimes opposed to US imperialism.
But the freedom-loving people of the world cannot remain a mute spectator to this overlordism, brigandage and gangsterism of the world imperialist powers headed by US imperialism nor should they be duped by the incessant imperialist propaganda. The imperialist sharks will be unbridled in their tyranny if there is no organized people’s resistance against all their felonious acts. Just as they did in Libya, the US imperialists and their allies will sneak into every country under this or that pretext, implement their nefarious designs, pit one section of the people against another fomenting divisiveness centring on religion, ethnicity or such other count to buttress their heinous agenda, overpower countries not falling in line with them by unleashing military attack and plotting killing of political opponents. One after another country would fall to such imperialist machination spelling doom to mankind.When the US imperialists and their associates are merrily indulging in all kinds of criminal acts and trying to cover them with panoply of cooked up alibis and charade of ‘restoring democracy’, the obvious question people should ask is who are they to determine what kind of rule would prevail in any other country? It is the exclusive preserve of the people of a country to decide what nature of governance they would like to have. Even if rulers of a country perpetrate genocide, it is upto the people there to develop powerful democratic movement or if the situation so warrants, a strong resistance movement to dissuade or dislodge the incumbent repressive regime. Democratic minded people of the world can also develop strong international public opinion against such crimes and extend moral support to such movement so as to create pressure on the culprit regime for stopping the ghastly activities. There are international diplomatic codes, existence of international bodies like International Court of Justice or even UNO, notwithstanding considerable dilution in their roles and their sickening obedience to the wishes of the US imperialists and their allies, to look after such matters. What is the propriety of the US imperialists and their cohorts to arrogate to themselves the power of functioning as international gendarme and nakedly meddle into the internal affairs of any country and that too by moving armed troops? If such be the case, what would be the fate of the lofty concepts of freedom, sovereignty, territorial integrity and independent state then? Is it to be assumed then that all these concepts are slated to vanish into thin air because the US imperialists have now emerged as a superlord by dint of their brute military might and hence ordained to write a new doctrine of democracy which is tantamount to meek unquestioned surrender to their sermons and fiats? If any ruler of any country does anything wrong, runs an autocratic regime, it is up to the people of that country to decide how he should be dealt with, what punishment should be meted out to him. History will judge his actions. Same is the case with Libya. Wherefrom do the US imperialists and their cohorts who in their own countries are brutally suppressing democratic movements, muffling voice of dissent and practising fascist dictatorship under the garb of parliamentary democracy, flouting and disobeying all democratic norms, codes and practices, derive the authority to militarily intervene in Libya or Iraq and engineer a regime change by murdering Gaddafi and Saddam? 
We are to keep in mind that what these imperialist despots fear most is the united conscious people’s movement. People must act and act decisively. True, in the situation obtaining, people apparently seem to be having no weapon to halt the murderous run of the imperialist sharks, to thwart the sinister imperialist machination of “humanitarian intervention with daggers drawn” or “trigger-happy export of democracy”. But that weapon has to be developed in right earnest, the invincible weapon of asserting of people’s power in right form. Of late, there have been spontaneous upheavals of people against pro-imperialist regimes in Egypt and Tunisia. Undeterred by the bullets and brutality of the autocratic regime and defying the long-continuing repressions that they have dreaded so far, lakhs of oppressed Egyptians from all sections of the society including women congregated at the Tahrir Square of Cairo and other parts of the country in the last week of January, 2011 to demand an end to thirty long years of President Hosni Mubarak’s most oppressive rule, fully backed, geared and protected by the army, and restoration of democracy. This spontaneous militant people’s protest which spread like wildfire across the country and virtually assumed the character of a mass uprising was greeted throughout the world as “Arab spring’. Such people’s protest agitations ought to surge forth in other countries of West Asia and Africa where dictatorial rules are in operation, the surging people’s protests have not crystallized in that manner. Most importantly, in order to lead all these protest agitations to their logical culmination, it is essential that the toiling people overcome all hurdles and hassles to close their ranks and develop well-organized powerful movements along the right track, build their own instruments of struggle right from the grassroots level rising above all differences and divisions and give birth through struggle to appropriate revolutionary leadership to spur them on to accomplish the goal. Simultaneously, a mighty militant global people’s movement needs to be developed against imperialism, particularly US imperialism by coordinating the anti-imperialist movements in the different countries and involving all anti-imperialist forces. Any attack on any country must be considered by the people of fellow countries as an attack on all of them by the US imperialists.  Hence, it should be incumbent on the anti-war peace-loving democratic minded patriotic people of all countries to rise up against any such attack, resist and repel with all might.  In other words, it would just not be an expression of solidarity but beyond that--unleashing action spurned by a sense of oneness.  The enemy would know that if it targets one particular country, the people of the entire region would retaliate and strike back.  If such co-ordination and fraternity among the fighting people of Latin America could be developed, it would not only give fillip to the democratic movements in each country but would also enfeeble the enemy to a great extent. And it is also of immense importance to understand that unless the various anti-imperialist people’s struggles grow and develop under correct revolutionary leadership, they will not be led to their logical culmination and might either be aborted midway or end in a half-baked and truncated way and the imperialist conspirators, sly and wicked to the bone, would cunningly exploit the accumulated grievances of the people in those lands for implementing their ‘humanitarian mission” of “planting democracy” through imbedded “agents” shored up as “pro-democracy” fighters. This alone can resist the marauding acts of imperialism, and save the world from this scourge of imperialist terror and oppression. We call upon all anti-imperialist peace-loving people to come forward and shoulder the task of releasing the desired people’s movement to thwart imperialist prowl with due expediency. 

With struggling greetings
Dr. Asok Samanta
Vice-President, Medical Service Centre
Member of All India Anti-Imperialist Forum
14th Feb. 2013


Dr.Asok Samanta on illegal regime changes



A letter by Dr. Asok Samanta                           Nationwide strike on 2nd day at Ludhiana

In all illegal regime changes....                       Bank Unions hold a massive rally

                                            

Economic policies benefiting the rich                                          The Communist Manifesto


Communist Song l Che'Guevara                                  Strike call by 11 Central Trade Unions




Monday, February 18, 2013

Protest against new property tax


Aam Aadmi Party staged a Dharna Rector Kathuria and SK Gogna
DSC_0435.JPG
The Aam Aadmi party members today  outside the Corporation office and met  Municipal Commissioner Mr. Rakesh Verma to protest against the levying of the new property tax and have submitted an ultimatum of 5 days for removal of the tax in the district. The citizens of Ludhiana gathered in large numbers to support the Aam Aadmi party protest against 
Property tax.    
According to the District Secretary of Aam Aadmi Party Mr. Balbir Aggarwal, “The administration instead of focusing on providing better basic amenities to the people, is focusing on thinking up new means of imposing taxes and newer ways of corruption. Projects like removing encroachments from city roads and providing proper sanitation and good roads should be the priority of the local administration and not the desire to find new ways to burdenthe common man”.

Aam Aadmi members had a long meeting with the officials of the Corporation including the Municipal Commissioner in which they provided proofs of how public money was being pilfered and if the government stopped all that corruption it would have no need to impose new taxes on the Citizens of Ludhiana.

Aam Aadmi party members including District Convenor Mr. Harjot Singh, Mr. Balbir Aggarwal, Mr. Gulshan Kumar, Mr. Suresh Aggarwal, Mr. Bhupinder Singh, Mr. Mohit Mittal, Mr. Raman, Mr. Manjeet Singh, Mr. Ravinder Singh, Mr. Kanav Vats, Mr. Ajay Mittal and Mr. Raghuveer Singh thanked the people of Ludhiana for wholeheartedly supporting the protest against Property tax.

The Party Spokesman Dr. S. S. Butter informed that the party volunteers will be setting up awareness camps in most areas of the city to make people aware about this new tax and also launch an extensive signature campaign against it starting from tomorrow to try and force the District Administration to revoke its decision.
Imposition of Property Tax

Friday, February 15, 2013

Sequestration will force a drawdown

02/13/2013 02:16 PM CST         Thu, Feb 14, 2013 at 1:58 AMChairman Outlines Sequestration's Dangers
By Claudette Roulo
American Forces Press Service
WASHINGTON, Feb. 13, 2013 - Sequestration will force a drawdown "more difficult and decidedly different" than any other in the nation's history, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told the House Armed Services Committee today.

Its deep, across-the-board spending cuts, combined with a dangerous and uncertain security environment, aging equipment and rising health care costs, place the nation squarely on the verge of an unprecedented readiness crisis, Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey said.

In a hearing that lasted nearly four hours, Dempsey, Deputy Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter and the Joint Chiefs of Staff all spoke of the dangers posed to national security by sequestration and the possibility that the continuing resolution now funding the government in lieu of a budget will be extended.

Sequestration was delayed until March 1 by a bill passed in January. If implemented, it would mandate about $500 billion in across-the-board defense spending cuts over 10 years in addition to cuts mandated over that period by the 2011 Budget Control Act.

"We are facing the prolonged specter of sequestration while under a continuing resolution, while we are just beginning to absorb $487 billion worth of cuts from 2011, and while we're still fighting and resourcing a war," the chairman said.

"There is no foreseeable peace dividend," Dempsey said.

"In this context, sequestration will upend our defense strategy," he said. "It will put the nation at greater risk of coercion. And it will require us to break commitments to our men and women in uniform and their families, to our defense industrial base, and to our partners and allies."

The new defense strategy formed last year could execute and absorb $487 billion in spending cuts over the next decade Dempsey said. "I can't sit here today and guarantee you that if you take another $175 billion that that strategy remains solvent."

The Defense Department is committed to fulfilling its role in the nation's economic recovery, the chairman said. But, he added, this requires budget certainty, time to implement reductions in a responsible manner and flexibility to transfer and reprogram money.

When parts of the defense budget are deemed untouchable by Congress, Dempsey said, readiness loses. "Everything needs to be on the table," he said.

Congress must ask itself what it wants of the military, Dempsey said. "If you want it to be doing what it's doing today, then we can't give you another dollar. If you want us to do something less than that, we're all there with you, and we'll figure it out."

Failure to act to avert sequestration eventually will require the department to reduce its international security commitments, Dempsey said, and to become less proactive about protecting national interests.

"When I testified before this committee last year, I said that if we fail to step up properly on the budget, we will reduce our options, and therefore increase our risk," he said. "Our military power will be less credible, because it will be less sustainable. Now, we're only a few days away from making that risk a reality."


Biographies:
Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

A "seismic event" had taken place

02/12/2013 10:45 AM CST           Tue, Feb 12, 2013 at 10:19 PM
Obama Condemns North Korean Nuclear Test
By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service

WASHINGTON, Feb. 12, 2013 - President Barack Obama today strongly condemned the latest North Korean nuclear test, saying it undermines regional stability in an important part of the world.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a statement shortly after midnight EST announcing that a "seismic event" had taken place, and later issued a second statement saying North Korea probably conducted an underground nuclear test near Punggye. The explosion yield was approximately several kilotons and the analysis of the event continues, the second statement said.

This is North Korea's third and largest nuclear test.

"This is a highly provocative act that, following its Dec. 12 ballistic missile launch, undermines regional stability, violates North Korea's obligations under numerous United Nations Security Council resolutions, contravenes its commitments under the Sept. 19, 2005, Joint Statement of the Six-Party Talks and increases the risk of proliferation," Obama said in a written statement. The Six-Party Talks include North Korea, South Korea, Russia, China, Japan and the United States.

North Korea's nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs constitute a threat to U.S. national security and to international peace and security, Obama said.

"The United States remains vigilant in the face of North Korean provocations and steadfast in our defense commitments to allies in the region," he added.

North Korean exploded its first nuclear device in October 2006, and conducted its second test in 2009.

"These provocations do not make North Korea more secure," Obama said in his statement. "Far from achieving its stated goal of becoming a strong and prosperous nation, North Korea has instead increasingly isolated and impoverished its people through its ill-advised pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery."

The U.N. Security Council is conducting an emergency session in New York to consider responses. "We will strengthen close coordination with allies and partners and work with our Six-Party partners, the United Nations Security Council, and other U.N. member states to pursue firm action," Obama said.

On Capitol Hill today, Deputy Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter expressed the hope that China would join in condemning the test.

"There's nothing more provocative than what the North Koreans did," Carter said during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, where he's testifying on the effects of looming defense spending cuts.

"It is very dangerous," he added. "We will take action to condemn and get the rest of the international community to condemn, particularly looking to China to join in that condemnation. They have a pivotal role in influencing the future here. That is an extremely dangerous situation."


Biographies:
Ashton B. Carter

Panetta Lauds DoD


02/12/2013 11:35 AM CST

Appreciate for Commitment to Protecting Nation

By Army Sgt. 1st Class Tyrone C. Marshall Jr.  

American Forces Press Service
WASHINGTON, Feb. 12, 2013 - As he prepares for retirement, Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta today addressed the Pentagon workforce, representing the entire Defense Department, thanking them for their contributions to national defense.

Click photo for screen-resolution image
Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta thanks the Defense Department's workforce at a farewell ceremony in the Pentagon courtyard, Feb. 12, 2013. Panetta is stepping down as the 23rd defense secretary. DOD photo by Erin A. Kirk-Cuomo
 

Speaking in the Pentagon courtyard, Panetta thanked leaders of the Defense Department, civilian employees and the military for their commitment to accomplishing the department's mission since he was sworn in as the 23rd secretary of defense on July 1, 2011."I'm a believer that our fundamental mission here at the Department of Defense is very simple," he said. "It is to protect and defend the United States of America and to keep our country safe. And because of your great work, and because of everything you do, we can say with pride that we have kept our country safe."
The defense secretary said knowing everything the Defense Department has done has helped to keep the country safe is his biggest source of pride as he heads back to California.
Panetta also paid tribute to the "love and support" of the workforce's families as they serve in "tough jobs."
"We face a lot of pressure, and challenges that sometimes demand we go long distances away from home," he said. "And yet throughout that, knowing that our families are there, knowing that they love and support us, is what gives us the ability to do this job.
"So my deepest thanks go out, not just to all of you, but to your families," he continued. "They are part of our Pentagon family, and I thank them from the bottom of my heart for their sacrifice and their dedication."
Panetta said he has come away from his experiences as defense secretary with a deep respect and admiration for all the dedication and sacrifices involved in keeping the nation safe. "Every day I see the people in this department, working and fighting together as one family, united behind our mission of protecting our country," he said.
The secretary also lauded service members for their willingness to fight to keep America safe.
"[It's] our No. 1 job, and I am so grateful for those that do that," he said. "I think that we are, as a nation, strong because there are men and women that are willing to put their lives on the line to protect our country."
Panetta also acknowledged the civilian workforce's contributions to the Defense Department's mission.
"You do everything you can to support our mission," he said. "You support our warfighters downrange. You don't get a hell of a lot of public recognition, but the fact is your efforts make a difference.
"We could not do this job without the civilian workforce," Panetta continued. "You're the unsung heroes of this nation, ... [and] are an important part of our success."
Panetta said he is "grateful and proud" as he reflects on what the Pentagon team has been able to accomplish together.
"We've developed, and are implementing, a new defense strategy that will sustain the strongest military power on Earth as we face challenges in defending our country while implementing fiscal discipline, Panetta said. "I have never believed that we have to choose between our responsibility to national security and our responsibility to fiscal discipline. We can do both."
Panetta said the new defense strategy implements key capabilities the military will need in the future, such as agility, rapid deployment, force protection and projection, and rotational deployments, among others.
"Putting those elements together was the result of a team effort by both the military and the civilian workforce here," he said. "I deeply appreciate their working as a team to put that in place."
The secretary thanked the Pentagon workforce for its part in maintaining the leading U.S. role in world affairs.
"We are the strongest military power in the world," he said. "The world needs our leadership. The world needs the United States of America to lead the world towards peace and towards prosperity."
Panetta expressed his gratitude for having the "honor" of leading the Defense Department, and told the workforce they would be "in my heart forever."
"My friends, it has been the honor of my life to have served with you in this position as secretary of defense," he said. "It's been the greatest privilege I've had in my almost 50 years of public service to be able to represent the people of this department to our friends and to our partners around the world."
 
Biographies:
Leon E. Panetta

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

We all should join her....without further delay

"I Am Rising...": Anoushka Shankar

The Afghan presidential elections

02/11/2013 04:25 PM CST                       Tue, Feb 12, 2013 at 4:08 AMOfficial Stresses Importance of 2014 Afghan Elections
How the Afghan forces protect voting 
By Jim Garamone
American Forces Press Service
WASHINGTON, Feb. 11, 2013 - The Afghan presidential elections now set for April 2014 are looming ever larger as a milestone for measuring progress in the country, NATO officials in Afghanistan said yesterday.


How the Afghan forces protect voting and how the Afghan people accept the results will be key to the long-term success of the country, said a senior International Security Assistance Force official speaking on background.

Things are looking up in Afghanistan, the official said, but there are many hurdles to overcome. Only 22 months remain in the ISAF mandate. By spring, Afghan forces will be leading security operations throughout the country. By the end of 2014, Afghan forces will shoulder the security burden themselves as the NATO mission ends.

The Taliban are also looking forward, the official said. "There will be a '13 fighting season," he said. The Taliban will be up against 352,000 members of the Afghan security forces. That force has grown in capability as it has grown in size, the official said.

There will be negotiations and talks between the Taliban and the international community. "From my vantage point I think it's a delaying tactic," he said. "They've gone through 12 years of war and they are 22 months away from a very small presence."

He said Afghan Taliban leaders in Quetta, Pakistan, are looking at three key things over the next two years. First, how good are the Afghan security forces? Second, what will be the U.S. and NATO investment in the country after 2015? And the third are the April 5, 2014, elections.

"[The elections] are probably the most critical thing that will happen in the next 22 months," he said. Afghans will go to the polls to elect a new president and provincial councils. The last election, in 2009, was marred by allegations of vote fraud. It is supremely important that these new elections go well and that Afghans accept the outcome, the official said.

The official spoke about the changes in Afghanistan since the surge of U.S. and NATO forces ended. The surge did what it was supposed to do, he said, buy time for Afghans to field their forces. Now Afghan soldiers and police are in the lead in security through most of the country and have grown in size and capabilities.

This is a long way from January 2009, the official noted, when the entire Afghanistan campaign looked like a failure. "In January 2009, Kandahar was at risk [and] the central Helmand Valley was at risk," he said. "There were a number of attacks into Kabul."

Then-ISAF commander Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal's assessment was that the actual campaign was at risk and asked for additional troops. "Take where we were in 2009 and jump to the end of the surge ... in September 2012," the official said. "As I see the battlespace, I can honestly say that you have a less capable, less popular and less of an existential threat when you look at the insurgency. But you still have a threat."

And the threat will remain in January 2015, but the Afghans should be able to manage it.

Like Afghanistan itself, statistics that look at violence in the country are complex. "When people look at statistics, they say that you have virtually inconsequential changes from '11 to '12," he said. "If you just look at those numbers without the context there is so much you miss."

Last year was about holding the gains that the surge made possible, he said. The Afghans moved to the lead as the United States pulled 23,000 personnel out of the country in September 2012. Afghan forces held the ground and actually expanded their control in the area west of Kandahar and in the Helmand River Valley, the official said.

Another piece of the statistics equation is where the violence was happening. "What we were able to do in 2012 was slowly start separating the insurgency from the major population centers," he said.

The violence in 2012 happened increasingly in sparsely settled rural areas, the official said, noting that in surveys, Afghans report they feel safer and believe the Taliban is not coming back.

Violence is still a problem and the official said 17 districts out of the 402 in the nation are where 50 percent of the violence occurs. Put another way, 80 percent of the attacks occur where 20 percent of the population live. The worst districts are in northern Helmand.

The Haqqani network specializes in high-profile attacks, the official said. "If there is an attack in Kabul it gets the press ... It gives the impression that Kabul is under siege, which is not the case."

Afghan forces have responded quickly and professionally to attacks in the capital, another sign of their continued maturation, he said, but high-profile attacks are going to happen, and they are going to get through.

There were 18 high-profile attacks in Kabul in 2011 and nine in 2012. While there were just nine attacks, the official said, there were "hundreds of threats." And while Afghan capabilities are improving, he added, "even the best goalie in professional soccer is going to get scored on."

Afghan forces are not going to let the Taliban have the rural areas, the official said. The Afghan Local Police -- now with some 20,000 members -- are becoming a security net for the people. "The ALP becomes a hold force for you," the official said. "You have police who live and work in the rural areas."

The official sees three tiers to the threat to Afghanistan. The first tier is tactical -- the 20,000 to 30,000 mostly local insurgents in the country.

The next level is the operational cadre -- the leadership, the shadow government and the Taliban in Pakistan, he said. These men can recruit, train and supply fighters. The leaders in Pakistan are problematic for ISAF, the official said. "We've heard that the Pakistanis are changing their strategic calculus, but there is 'what you say' and 'what you do,'" he said. "I'm waiting for the 'what you do' to see how that works."

The third threat is not the insurgency, the official said, but the degree of corruption and criminality that exists within the government.

"If you can get some rule of law and move forward, then you can pull the carpet out from under the insurgency," he said. Putting in place a legal system and service infrastructure will be a key outgrowth of the April 2014 elections, the official noted.

The world will be watching those elections as well. After 2015, there are 28 NATO nations and eight partner nations that have already said they will invest in Afghanistan. "And all will be watching the elections," the official said. 


Related Sites:
NATO International Security Assistance Force